In the volatile landscape of global geopolitics, the signing of the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on September 17, 2025, represents a seismic shift in regional security dynamics. Framed by Riyadh and Islamabad as an institutionalization of longstanding ties, this pact, often described in media reports as extending a potential nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, declares that any aggression against one signatory shall be considered an aggression against both. This clause, encompassing "all military means," has profound implications for India, positioning Pakistan as the de facto security guarantor for one of New Delhi's primary energy suppliers. As governments and intelligence agencies assess the fallout, this analysis argues that the agreement is not merely a bilateral accord but a meticulously orchestrated U.S.-backed manoeuvre, executed through backchannels, to realign alliances in favour of defence sales while countering India's rising influence in the Middle East and beyond. Adding layers of complexity, the pact dovetails with intensified U.S. efforts to isolate Iran, leveraging Sunni alliances to encircle Tehran amid escalating sanctions and military deterrence measures.

Key Clauses of the Pact and Their Direct Ramifications for India

The SMDA's core provision, that an attack on Saudi Arabia or Pakistan constitutes an attack on both formalizes a mutual defence commitment that extends beyond conventional military cooperation. Signed amid heightened Middle East tensions following Israel's September 9, 2025, strike on Doha, Qatar, the agreement includes provisions for defence industry collaboration, technology transfer, military co-production, capacity-building, and training. While Saudi officials insist it is not targeted at any specific nation and does not explicitly invoke Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, a senior Saudi source described it as a "comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means deemed necessary depending on the specific threat." This ambiguity introduces a nuclear dimension, given Pakistan's status as the Islamic world's sole nuclear power, with its doctrine historically oriented toward deterring India.

For India, this pact exacerbates an already precarious strategic environment. Pakistan, India's arch-rival with whom it has fought four major wars since 1947, now holds leverage over Saudi Arabia, which supplies approximately 25% of India's crude oil imports, valued at over $31 billion in FY 2023-24. Any escalation in Indo-Pakistani tensions, such as the brief but intense conflict in May 2025 involving cross-border strikes, could now indirectly implicate Saudi Arabia, forcing Riyadh to balance its robust economic ties with New Delhi against its security obligations to Islamabad. we note that these risks entangling Saudi Arabia in South Asian disputes, potentially disrupting India's energy security and compelling New Delhi to diversify suppliers amid global volatility. Moreover, the pact strengthens Pakistan's deterrence posture, aka a pawn for US strategic interests allowing it to project power in the Middle East while maintaining focus on its eastern border with India, thereby complicating India's multi-front security planning.

The agreement's timing, just days after an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha condemning Israel's actions, underscores its role in reshaping regional alliances. Yet, its clauses appear tailored to exploit India's vulnerabilities, particularly as New Delhi deepens ties with Gulf states through initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
 

A Strategic Surprise: U.S. Backchannel Coordination and Admiral Brad Cooper's Role

Far from an isolated bilateral development, the SMDA emerges as a strategic surprise engineered through U.S. backchannels, aligning with Washington's interests in bolstering Pakistan as a counterweight to India while facilitating lucrative arms sales. Historical precedents abound: in the 1970s, when U.S. Congress withheld Foreign Military Funding (FMF) loans for Pakistan, Saudi Arabia stepped in to finance weapons purchases, a pattern that allowed Islamabad to modernize its arsenal indirectly. Former Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S. Husain Haqqani has drawn parallels, suggesting the current pact could enable Pakistan to acquire U.S. weapons using Saudi funds under the Trump administration's permissive sales policy. This mirrors reports of Saudi financial support for Pakistan's nuclear program in the 1990s, including alleged funding for ballistic missiles and warheads, as documented in various intelligence assessments.

Central to this coordination is Admiral Brad Cooper, who assumed command of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) in 2025 after serving as deputy commander and previously leading U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and the Fifth Fleet. As CENTCOM's chief, Cooper oversees U.S. military operations across the Middle East, including engagements with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, both key partners in counterterrorism and regional stability efforts. Intelligence sources indicate that Cooper acted as a broker-in-chief, leveraging CENTCOM's extensive backchannel networks to facilitate discreet negotiations. His prior role in Bahrain, coordinating maritime security with Gulf allies, positioned him ideally to bridge U.S. interests with Saudi anxieties over diminishing American reliability, particularly after perceived U.S. inaction on Israel's Doha strike. This backchannel approach aligns with U.S. strategy to revive Pakistan's role in the Islamic world, countering Iran's influence while ensuring a market for American defence exports, potentially including F-16 upgrades or advanced missile systems funded by Riyadh.

Evidence of U.S. orchestration is further supported by the pact's alignment with Washington's broader pivot: empowering Sunni allies against perceived threats, even at the expense of India's strategic autonomy. This move confirms U.S. interests in allying with Pakistan against India, prioritizing arms sales over balanced regional partnerships, as seen in recent approvals for Pakistani military acquisitions despite congressional scrutiny.
 

Nuances of U.S. Actions Against Iran: Encirclement Through Allies and Escalating Pressure

Complicating the narrative, the SMDA serves as a linchpin in the U.S.'s multifaceted campaign against Iran, blending diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, and military deterrence to encircle Tehran. As of September 19, 2025, the U.S. has intensified its anti-Iran measures, including the initiation of "snapback" UN sanctions under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), set to reinstate prohibitions on Iranian uranium enrichment and restrictions on arms, finance, and shipping by September 27, 2025, unless Tehran complies. This follows U.S. State Department designations on September 17, 2025, targeting Iranian-backed Iraqi militias like Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada for their roles in attacks on U.S. interests. Additionally, on September 16, 2025, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned a financial network supporting Iran's military, part of ongoing efforts against shadow banking operations fuelling Tehran's proxy activities.

Admiral Cooper has been vocal in framing these actions, warning in June 2025 Senate testimony that Iran retains "tactical ability to threaten U.S. troops" despite setbacks from Israeli strikes, emphasizing the need for robust deterrence against Tehran and its proxies. In July 2025 statements, Cooper described a nuclear-armed Iran as a potential "global hegemon," advocating for reforms in foreign military sales to bolster allies like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan against this threat. The pact, therefore, nuances U.S. strategy by providing Saudi Arabia, a frontline state against Iranian influence with Pakistani nuclear deterrence, indirectly extending U.S. leverage without direct commitment. Regional analysts view this as Saudi hedging against Iran, including threats from Yemen's Houthis, while aligning with U.S. goals to weaken Tehran's regional alliances. Social Media ecosystem discussions highlight concerns that the agreement targets Iran and its proxies, potentially drawing Pakistan into Gulf conflicts under U.S. orchestration.

This anti-Iran focus adds a layer of duplicity: while ostensibly countering Tehran, the U.S. risks alienating India, as evidenced by the September 18, 2025, revocation of sanctions waivers for the Chabahar Port, exposing Indian personnel to U.S. penalties and undermining New Delhi's access to Central Asia. Such moves suggest Washington is prioritizing encirclement of Iran, through Sunni pacts and sanctions over sustaining partnerships with emerging powers like India.
 

The Demise of IMEC: A Casualty of U.S.-Orchestrated Realignment

The SMDA's ripple effects extend to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced at the 2023 G20 Summit as a Biden administration grand strategy to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). IMEC envisioned integrated rail, maritime, energy, and digital links from India through the Gulf to Europe, fostering economic integration and reducing transit times by up to 40%. However, escalating Middle East conflicts, including the Gaza war and the Doha strike have virtually shut down progress, rendering IMEC stalled amid geopolitical uncertainty. As of mid-2025, the corridor faces insurmountable challenges: underdeveloped rail networks, military disruptions, and shifting alliances that prioritize security over trade.

The Saudi-Pakistan pact accelerates this shutdown by entrenching Riyadh in Islamabad's orbit, complicating India's efforts to position itself as a bridge between Asia and Europe. With Saudi Arabia now tied to Pakistan's nuclear posture, IMEC's viability diminishes, as potential investors cite heightened risks of regional entanglement. This outcome serves U.S. interests by undermining a Biden-era initiative that elevated India's global role, while opening doors for American firms to dominate alternative defence and infrastructure deals in the Gulf.

A Wake-Up Call for India's Strategic Independence

The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact, backed by U.S. backchannels and brokered through figures like Admiral Brad Cooper, underscores Washington's willingness to prioritize short-term defence sales and anti-Iran encirclement over long-term stability, effectively allying with Pakistan against India. This places New Delhi in an untenable position: reliant on Saudi energy while facing an empowered adversary amid U.S. driven pressures on Iran that indirectly jeopardize Indian strategic interests. Governments and intelligence agencies must recognize this as a deliberate realignment, urging India to accelerate diversification of energy sources, strengthen BRICS partnerships, and pursue independent Middle East diplomacy in the emerging multipolar world. Ultimately, the pact not only reshapes South Asian and Middle Eastern security but signals a broader erosion of U.S. credibility, demanding vigilant monitoring to safeguard regional peace and stability.